Topic Definitions #
RACI Matrix
PESTEL Analysis
JTBD
PII
SWOT
PEST
Strategy Synthesis
SWOT Analysis
External Environment of the Project #
Start market analysis from the outer circle:
Any market analysis begins with the macroenvironment — the outer circle of external factors that influence all industry players simultaneously.
This is a fundamental step: it forms the context in which the company, the project, and the competitors will operate.
If we imagine the market as a system of concentric circles, then:
the outer circle contains uncontrollable forces (politics, economics, technology, society, ecology, and law);
the inner circle contains the market players (customers, suppliers, competitors, new entrants, substitutes);
at the center is the project, which responds to all these signals.
Macro-factor analysis helps not only to understand the current situation but also to predict likely changes in the environment and prepare for them in advance.
Purpose of the Analysis
No project exists in a vacuum — it develops under the influence of the external environment. To predict how the market will evolve, it is necessary to analyze macro factors step by step, transforming observations into scenarios.
Macro-factor analysis answers the following questions:
- Which trends are shaping the future of the industry?
- Which factors are limiting development?
- Which directions may become new growth opportunities?
- Which scenarios are possible if external conditions change?
Purpose:
- To understand the environment in which the project will operate and which long-term forces may change the rules of the game.
Key tasks:
- Scanning the macroenvironment (PESTEL)
Study the political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal contexts. - Identifying drivers and barriers
Determine the forces that may accelerate or slow down market development. - Scenario modeling
Create possible future development scenarios and assess the project’s sensitivity to environmental changes.
General logic of the “pipeline”:
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PESTEL Analysis #
document concrete factors + validate them with data and sources + make an initial assessment of trend/impact/confidence.
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Scenario Trend Scan #
transform factors into defined trends with time horizons and signals, normalize probability and impact using agreed scales.
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Cross-Impact Assessment #
for the top trends, record directional influences on one another (who affects whom and to what extent), calculate driver score and vulnerability score, and identify key drivers and weak points.
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Sensitivity Mapping #
build scenarios from the identified drivers (configurations of trends), calculate probability, impact on the project, and priority (risk/opportunity score) for each scenario, resulting in a ranked scenario list and sensitivity maps.
Tools and Methods of Analysis #
PESTEL Analysis — the foundational framework for assessing the external environment
PESTEL is a systematic approach to structuring the factors that influence a project:
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Political #
political and legal decisions, stability, tax policy, government programs.
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Economic #
macroeconomics: inflation, exchange rates, income levels, investment climate.
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Social #
demographics, cultural values, lifestyle, consumer behavior.
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Technological #
innovation, speed of technology adoption, R&D, automation.
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Environmental #
ecology, climate, sustainability, emissions regulation.
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Legal #
laws, licensing, standards, consumer and data protection.
Extended variants:
- PESTLEI — adds industry analysis (Industry).
- STEEP — includes ethical aspects (Ethical).
- LONGPEST — evaluates factors at the local, national, and global levels.
Purpose:
- Understand which external forces shape the industry and where the main risks and opportunities are located.
Stage Logic:
- Compile a list of potential factors.
- Validate them with facts (data, numbers, sources).
- Assess the strength and direction of influence.
Role:
- To create a “framework of the environment,” which later becomes the foundation for scenarios, SWOT, and competitive analysis.
The first visual block — “PESTEL Analytical Table” and “PESTEL Summary Dashboard” — shows which specific factors are relevant for the U.S. banking industry:
The table below displays metrics, trend direction, and commentary for each factor.
This is a real table demonstrating how external factors are distributed across the six PESTEL categories. The sample case, “launching a bank in the USA,” reflects actual data on regulation, interest rates, ESG, and AI.
How to read it:
- Each row represents a separate factor.
- Color coding indicates the strength and direction of the trend.
- Used for initial identification of risks and opportunities.
The card-style dashboard below visualizes these categories as “zones of external pressure.”
The dashboard summarizes the results of the PESTEL analysis in the form of cards with key insights.
This allows you to quickly identify where the highest pressure on the industry is located (for example, in the Legal and Technological sectors).
Interpretation:
- The dashboard is used as a “quick environment map” — it shows which forces are strengthening and which are weakening.
Detailed Breakdown of the Method Using the Case “Opening a Bank in the USA” #
Step 1. Forming Factor Hypotheses (Draft List)
At this stage, specific phenomena that influence the market are identified.
For the project “Opening a Bank in the USA”, this may include:
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Political #
Basel III Endgame, federal regulatory shifts, government oversight trends.
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Economic #
Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, rising unemployment.
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Social #
Customer shift toward digital-only banks, declining trust in traditional institutions.
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Technological #
AI/RegTech for fraud prevention, increasing cybersecurity requirements.
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Environmental #
ESG requirements, “green” lending.
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Legal #
Stricter AML/KYC requirements, OCC licensing procedures, compliance obligations.
Step 2. Validating factors with data (research)
Each factor must be researched and backed by evidence:
For each factor, gather:
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Data Source: #
Data Source: Official reports (Fed, FinCEN, BIS, IMF, etc.)
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Metric: #
Quantifiable measure (e.g., interest rate %, fraud incidents/year).
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Baseline (t0) #
The initial reference point for the factor.
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Trend Direction: #
declining trust in banks among younger audiences
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Confidence: #
focus on ESG
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Comment: #
tightening of KYC/AML requirements
